Since I angered some Chads on /r/investing here's why I think China is the next "big short".
Fellow idiots, I posted this comment which seems to have angered the highly sophisticated /investing community. I don't mind being downvoted but at least provide some counter arguments if you're going to be a dick. So in the pursuit of truth and tendies for all, I have prepared some juicy due diligence (DD) for WSB Capital on why China is on the verge of collapse. TL;DR at the bottom. Point 1: Defaults in China have been accelerating aggressively, and through July 2019, 274 real estate developers filed for bankruptcy, up 50% over last year. A bonus? Many Chinese state controlled banks have been filing for bankruptcy as well. Just google "china bank defaults" or something similar. Notice how many articles there are from 2019? When the banking system fails, everything else usually fails too. Point 2:The RMB has depreciated significantly. Last time this happened, in 2015-2016, there was a significant outflow of foreign invested capital. According to the IIF, outflows reached $725bn due to the currency depreciation.. This time is different why again? I have heard some arguments why there will be less outflow this time, but I struggle to buy them. Point 3: Despite wanting to operate like a developed economy, China still has not been able to shrug off the middle income trap. Their GDP per capita is comparable to countries we normally associated with being developing/emerging markets. Tangentially related to point 10. Point 4: China is an export-dependent economy, with about 20% of their exports contributing towards their GDP. Less exporting means less GDP, less consumption (because businesses make less money, they pay people less, who in turn spend less), which has a greater effect on GDP than any declines in exports would have at face value. Guess what? Chinese exports dropped 1% in August, and August imports dropped -1%, marking the 5th month this year of negative m/m export growth.. Point 5: Business confidence has been weak in China - declining at a sustained pace worse than in 2015. When businesses feel worse, they spend less, invest less in fixed assets, hire less until they feel better about the future. Which takes me to my next point. Point 6:Fixed asset investment in China has declined 30 percentage points since 2010. While rates are low, confidence is also low, and they are sitting on a record amount of leverage, which means they simply will not be able to afford additional investment. Point 7: They are an extremely levered economy with a total debt to GDP ratio of over 300%, per the IIF, which also accounts for roughly 15% of global total fucking debt. Here's an interview with someone else talking about it too. Point 8: Their central bank recently introduced a metric fuckton of stimulus into their economy. This will encourage more borrowing....add fuel to the fire. Moreover, the stimulus will mechanically likely weaken the RMB even more, which could lead to even more foreign outflows, which are already happening, see next point. Point 9: Fucking LOTS of outflows this year. As of MAY, according to this joint statement, around 40% of US companies are relocating some portion of their supply chains away from mainland. This was in May. Since May, we have seen even more tariffs imposed, why WOULD companies want to stay when exporting to the US is a lot more expensive now? Point 10: Ignoring ALL of the points above, we are in a global synchronized slowdown, with many emerging market central banks cutting rates - by the most in a decade. Investors want safety, and safe-haven denominated assets are where we have seen a lot of flocking into recently. Things that can be considered safe-havens have good liquidity, a relatively stable economy, and a predictable political environment. Would love to hear opposing thoughts if you think China is a good buy. I am not against China, nor any other country for that matter, but I am against losing money (yes, wrong sub etc.), and I can not rationalize why anyone would be putting in a bid. TL;DR: the bubble is right in front of your face, impending doom ahead, short everything, fuck /investing. Edit, since you 'tards keep asking me how to trade this, there are a few trades that come to mind:
US treasuries still have room to run (before the autists say that's not yolo enough you could trade OTM calls on UST-linked ETFs, US govvie futures for gainz)
Sell SPX companies with big supply chain exposure and heavy cost of capital, buy their competitors without these features.
Open up apparel factories in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and sell to the US.
Buy soybeans assuming farmers get a bailout from US
I am sure there are plenty of China based ETFs which could be played, DYOR.
Short any US listed company with mainland China domicile. If shit REALLY hits the fan between US/China, there are levers that US Govt. can pull to fuck them.
Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call
As originally published via CoinLive I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets. At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time. Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long? USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF. Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to: Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating. While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis. I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary. If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year. Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled TheParadox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets." However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass. Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b. Interest Rates Set to Rise Further First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging." Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png) Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve. While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode. Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png) Deutsche Bank - End of the Road? Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states: "One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%." There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models. One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below: !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/946/content_2018-05-30_1052.png) Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png) Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals. Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports. Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years. As the author states: "I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commoditieshavennot been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. " !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png) Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018. The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below: "Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place." Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course." It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments. Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital. Anyone Can BeWrongDatadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March. "It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When." Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line. On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
EURUSD jumps 100+ pips an hour before GBP news release?
Can anyone shed some light on why the EURUSD jumped a good 100+ pips within the course of an hour, much before the GBP news release? I checked my calendars and couldn't find any major news release pertaining to the EUR. Have I missed something? Edit: Grammar.
Most targets, except for USDJPY due to it's correlation to SPX/SPY and DJI, are bullish. I saw several small gap downs in futures which represent a strong opening for the USD. USDCAD is looking to tear. AUDUSD is potentially breaking a huge support line at .7800. You aren't getting 100% guidance because that doesn't exist in FX. It's anebvulous message. There is likely other factors too:
Fear that the market still needs to fill the gaps in it's shitty structure that was built during that insane Christmas/Post-Christmas bull charge
Fear of the new Fed Chair: who is he? What is he like? Another dove like Yellen, unpredictable like Bernanke?
Fear that the Fed may not have as much power as they say they do? So much wealth has been generated within private sector that it is becoming apparent that the Fed doesn't have as much leverage as it used to: private money is capable of dictating market courses sometimes now.
Silver is dropping: Technicals and Fundamentals (/SIU7)
Silver is dropping. A good short IMHO. Here's why:
On the D1, you can see a really beautiful, repetitive descending sinusoidal wave forming. It is respecting its channel quite nicely. Lower highs and lower lows mean a definite southbound trend. I ran a Fibonacci extension off of the last wave, and since I bow to the temple of the Fibonacci Sweet Spot (the 0.5-0.618 zone), this puts the target price firmly in the $15.48-$15.16 target range for exit. Nature Respects the Fib. Note that we are at a support line right now between $16.25-$16.18. If it breaches this, it should drop nicely. Check out this /SIU7 D1 chart Remember that Previous Price Performance Probably Predicts Pending Principal Projections.
For those of you who are new - let's learn some Forex. Metals are correlated to the JPY (Japanese Yen), gold more than silver, but both tend to follow the currency quite nicely. Yen up = metals up, and Yen dropping = metals dropping, almost to a T. Gold follows this almost rigidly, it is spooky how gold will mirror JPY almost to a tick. Now, most FX traders look at USDJPY... which means that when USDJPY drops, that means Yen is going up, which means metals should climb. Hence, metals are inversely correlated to USDJPY. USDJPY is climbing. US inflation is what everyone is jabbing about - Dollar stronk(er) this week, at least in relation to the Yen. There is a "widening of the interest rate differential between U.S. Government Bonds and Japanese Government Bonds"; as well, there is an increasing demand for higher risk assets... which straight forward means that money will move away from metals and away from the Yen, both of which are seen as safe havens in tough times. Read on: https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/usdjpy-fundamental-weekly-forecast-its-all-about-u-s-inflation-this-week-427595 Also, USDJPY produced a doji on the W1 chart, a decent reversal signal when correlated with other data. Higher time-frames produce stronger signals, and algos have more money and power than you ever will, trader..... and those AIs respect these levels very much. Check it out: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-forecast-bullish-follow-through-likely-after-last-weeks-doji-201708070413 Would love to hear other trader's thoughts. I'm short 1 contract of /SIU7. Don't coattail me without doing your own DD, if you lose money, it's your own fault, you should have stayed in school and gotten that plebe job like momma said, ya loser =) Remember that Silver is a very highly leveraged asset, one tick = $0.005 and each tick is $25.00. This means that $1.00 movement in the price of silver is worth $5,000.00 per contract!! Please protect yourself with stops and don't be afraid to take profits. Silver has tickled many a traders greed gland, usually rectally, and this has led to massive destruction more than once....
I am long now. Ate it on going short, I missed the bounce off of resistance @ 1.0825, but I reanalyzed and thought it would keep going down to ~ 1.08 so I jumped in after it broke out of my channel. It looks like PBoC devalued 0.5% (goddam it) and so now USD is weak. Those of you short USDJPY are making a killing! Long @ 1.083, target 1.0897, next line of Resistance is ~1.0935 EURUSD M15
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A Lykke coin (LKK) is a cryptographic token that represents ownership of Lykke, a Swiss registered corporation. There is no mining and currently it's not listed on other exchanges (although that may change). 100 LKK represent 1 share of Lykke Corp. Read more at our Information Memorandum
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Lykke is not a cryptocurrency or distributed ledger technology venture; we are building a marketplace that integrates seamlessly with the existing financial system. Our trading venue uses a matching engine to cross buy and sell orders. The accounting, delivery, and settlement of traded assets use distributed ledger technology. Our initial focus is the foreign exchange market with a daily transaction volume of 4 trillion USD, the biggest financial market in the world.
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Currently yes, however a web trading platform is being developed and part of the medium term roadmap.
So they voted to keep rates the same. I have personally been looking for the Fed to Hike rates in December since July, and like most traders expected this outcome. With a vote of 7-3 I still feel this is the case, with the Fed raising rates after the US election. I want to hear the communities thoughts and outlook on the USD given the statement from the Fed: 'Full statement Fed decision, Sep 21 2016' http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=8ee49888-c4fc-430f-918f-bf8ebc3a6e1c What do we think? Thanks
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Minimum deposit $10000 (or $3,000 if under 25yo) * Well diversified -Oanda
Market maker. Second largest retail FX brokerage in the US. Easy platform for beginners.
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Not well diversified, but well capitalized -Gain Capital (whitelabel forex.com) *Market Maker *Fair spreads *Minimum deposit $250 *Well diversified -FXCM Inc
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Apps are typically broker dependent. Some brokers have their own proprietary software, while others lease common software like Metatrader or NinjaTrader. Some software has a large development community for indicators and EAs.
Terminology/Acronyms: www.forexlive.com/ForexJargon - Common terms and acronyms FAQ: I need to exchange money, how do I do it? This isn’t what this sub is for. Your best bet is using your bank or an online exchange service. Be prepared to pay a hefty fee. I have money in one currency and need to exchange it into another sometime in the future, should I wait? Don’t ask us this. We speculate intraday in FX and shouldn’t be relied on to tell you what’s best for you. Exchange the money when you need it. I have an FX account, should I start trading demo or live? This is highly debatable. You should definitely demo trade until you have mastered how to use the trading platform on desktop and mobile. After that it’s up to you. Many think that the psychology of trading live vs demo trading is massively different. So it may pay to learn to trade live. Just be warned that most FX traders lose almost their entire first account so start with a low affordable balance. What’s money management? Money management is a form of risk management and is arguably the most important aspect of your trading when it comes to long term survival. You should always enter trades with a stop loss - the distance of the stop allows you to calculate how large of a percent of your account balance will be lost if your trade stops out. You can run a monte carlo simulation to figure out the risk of having a number of trades go against you in a row to drain your account. The general rule is that you should only risk losing 1-4% of your account per trade entered. More on this here: www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/fxmoneymgmt.asp www.swing-trade-stocks.com/money-management.html What about automated trading? Retail FX traders have been known to program “Expert Advisors” (EAs) to automate trading. It’s generally advisable to stay away from that until you’re very experienced. Never buy an EA from a developer because the vast majority of them are scams. What indicators are best? That’s up to you to test and find out. Many in this forum dislike oscillating indicators since they fail to capture the essence of what moves price. With experience you will discover what works best for you. In my experience indicators that are most popular with professional traders are those that provide trading “levels” such as pivot points, fibonacci, moving averages, trendlines, etc. What timeframe should I trade? Price action can vary in different timeframes. In longer term timeframes the price action and fundamentals are much more clear. Unfortunately it would take a very long time to figure out whether or not what you’re doing is successful on longer timeframes. In shorter timeframes you can often tell very quickly if what you’re doing is profitable. Unfortunately there’s a lot more “noise” on these levels which can prove deceptive for those trying to learn. Therefore the best bet is to use a multi-timeframe analysis, working from top-down to come up with trades. Should I trade using fundamental analysis (FA) of technical analysis (TA)? This is a long standing argument in these forums and elsewhere. I’ll settle it here - you should have an understanding of both. Yes there are traders who blindly ignore one of the other but a truly well rounded trader should understand and implement both into the analysis. The market is driven in the longer term through FA. But TA is necessary to give traders a place to enter and exit trades from a psychological risk/reward standpoint. I’ve heard trading Binary Options is an easy way to make money? The general advice is to stay away from binaries. The structure of binary options is so that when you lose the broker wins. This incentive has created a very scammy industry where there are few legitimate binary options brokers. In addition in order to be profitable in binaries you have to win 55-65% of the time. That’s a much higher premium over spot FX. Am I actually exchanging currencies? Yes and no. Your broker handles spot FX is currency pairs. Although they make an exchange at the settlement date they treat your position in your account as a virtual currency pair. Think of it like a contract where you can only buy or sell it as a pair. In this sense you are always long one currency while short another. You are merely speculating that one currency will appreciate or depreciate vs another. Why didn't my order fill? Even if price appears to cross over a line on your chart it does not guarantee a fill. Different charting platforms chart different prices - some chart the bid price, some the ask price and some the midpoint price. To fill a limit order price needs to cross your limit's price plus the spread at the time that it is crossing. If it does not equal or exceed the spread then it will not fill. Be wary that in general spreads are not fixed. So what may fill at one time may not at another.
La presión para devolver el dinero a los acreedores europeos podría forzar pronto al Gobierno griego de Syriza a abandonar elementos fundamentales del programa anti austeridad con que ganaron las pasadas elecciones de enero y asumieron su mandato, o bien al impago de la deuda, que a su vez podría suponer su salida del Euro, la moneda común de 19 países europeos. Las noticias que aparecieron el lunes  (27-IV-2015), cuando fue escrito este artículo, sugerían que los funcionarios del Ministerio de Finanzas griego, dirigidos poor alguien cercano al primer ministro Alexis Tsipras, estarían preparándose para enviar al Gobierno alemán nuevas propuestas que contemplarían medidas de austeridad para mantener las privatizaciones y restringir el gasto público, tal y como exigen los prestamistas, a cambio de financiación para evitar el impago. Aunque la información resulte exagerada o inexacta, los rumores de por sí muestran la intensidad de la presión sobre Grecia para que capitule ante las exigencias de sus prestamistas. El ambiente de crisis se ha agravado a lo largo del mes de abril. Para afrontar el pago de 815 millones de dólares al Fondo Monetario Internacional, correspondiente al tramo que vence a primeros de mayo, más otros 425 millones de intereses, Tsipras aprobó un decreto a finales de abril que otorgaba al Banco Central griego el control directo de todos los fondos mantenidos por los gobiernos locales y las instituciones públicas. Ese movimiento planateó nuevas dudas sobre si el Gobierno de Syriza sería capaz de mantener los compromisos electorales: uno, el pago regular y completo de salarios y pensiones a los trabajadores; dos, la finalización de los despidos públicos; y tres, no aumentar el IVA. Si el Gobierno decide seguir adelante con ellos y no hacer los pagos podría encontrarse fuera de la zona euro y verse obligado a tomar una serie de medidas como el control de capitales y la nacionalización de bancos y posiblemente otros sectores de la economía para que estos sigan funcionando, y ahí la acción de los trabajadores desempeñarán un papel decisivo. Puede que pronto no le quede otra opción, incluso si el Gobierno hace más concesiones. Pese a ver sido obligada en febrero a dar marcha atrás en varias de sus propuestas electorales (2), Syriza sigue enfrentada a las autoridades europeas, las cuales están dedicadas a impedir que el Gobierno griego de izquierdas ponga en marcha medidas para rebatir la devastadora política de austeridad de estos últimos años. La pregunta es así de dura: pagar a los acreedores o pagar los salarios de los funcionarios y pensionistas. El enfrentamiento plantea la posibilidad de que Grecia se vea forzada a abandonar el Euro. Tanto si es deliberada, "Grexit", como si es el resultado del impago de la deuda, "Greccident", la salida de Grecia de la zona euro traería consecuencias económicas y políticas imprevisibles. Pero al parecer, es algo a lo que Alemania, la potencia dominante en la UE, está deseando arriesgarse. Desde la restructuración de la deuda griega en 2012, en los países miembros de la UE se ha producido una transferencia del riesgo de insolvencia de los bancos privados a los contribuyentes. Con los bancos supuestamente aislados del riesgo de impago, la Comisión Europea, el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) y el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), conocidos conjuntamente como la Troika, están apretando los tornillos. En estos momentos, alrededor de 2,5 millones de personas de una población de 11 millones viven bajo el umbral de la pobreza (3). Otros 3,8 millones están al borde de la misma. La tasa de desempleo a comienzos de 2015 era un 26,6%, y un 52% entre jóvenes de 15 a 24 años. Los salarios han caído un 5% de media anual desde 2009. No obstante, para asegurarse un acuerdo temporal de cuatro meses de 7.800 millones de dólares que permitiría a su país obtener los fondos que precisa desesperadamente, el Gobierno griego debe inclinarse ante nuevas exigencias (4). Para aumentar la presión todavía más, el BCE ha diseñado una serie de planes para limitar los préstamos a los bancos comerciales en virtud de la "ayuda de liquidez de emergencia", que hasta ahora a mantenido a flote a los bancos griegos, aun cuando las grandes fortunas del país siguen sacando su dinero de Grecia. Como señalaron consultores del banco de inversiones Brown Harriman (5): <>. Si el Gobierno griego piensa que puede posponer una vez más <> es porque esa ha sido hasta ahora la actitud de Tsipras y la mayoría de los líderes de Syriza. Creyeron desde el principio que el estrepitoso fracaso de las políticas de austeridad y un mandato fuerte de los votantes griegos obligarían al FMI, la UE y el BCE a negociar un compromiso razonable: uno que aliviara la carga de la deuda griega y permitiera al país seguir dentro del la zona euro. Por eso, en vez de preparar al país ante una posible salida del Euro, el Gobierno fomentó la ilusión de que se podría alcanzar un acuerdo tolerable con las autoridades europeas y el FMI. El resultado puede verse en una encuesta de opinión realizada en abril, según la cual el 70% de las personas entrevistadas apoya un compromiso con la Troika (6) para alcanzar un acuerdo que permita a Grecia permanecer dentro de la zona euro, una opinión que ha sido impulsada enérgicamente por los medios griegos, incluso ante la presión, cada vez mayor, por parte de las autoridades europeas que podrían empujar a Grecia fuera del Euro, le guste o no. Como señalaron muchas personas de la izquierda griega, incluyendo la Plataforma de Izquierdas dentro de Syriza (7), Tsipras renunció a una pequeña posibilidad de maniobrar al descartar de manera preventiva cualquier escenario que contemplase el impago. Los líderes del partido del Gobierno siguieron aferrados a la esperanza de un acuerdo con la Troika, incluso después de verse obligados a dar marcha atrás en su primera confrontación con las autoridades europeas en febrero. En ese momento, el Gobierno acordó mantener un elevado "superávit primario" -el saldo presupuestario del Gobierno antes del pago de intereses- y llevar a cabo una serie de nuevas "reformas" que incluirían privatizaciones y otras medidas que se especificarían más adelante. Al presentar este duro revés como una victoria, tanto Tsipras como el Ministro de Finanzas griego, Yanis Varoufakis, han tratado de ganar tiempo con la esperanza de "zafarse" del Ministro de Finanzas alemán, Wolfgang Schäuble, apelando a los dirigentes de Francia, Italia, el FMI e incluso a Barack Obama. No ha funcionado. Varoufakis intentó apaciguar al FMI (8) en la reunión que tuvo lugar en Washington en abril asegurando que Grecia <>. Pero no hubo ninguna concesión. Pocos días después, Varoufakis tuvo una recepción abiertamente hostil (9) en la reunión de ministros de Finanzas de la Zona Euro celebrada en Letonia. Pese a todo, en un artículo publicado en su blog, Varoufakis insistió (10) en que Grecia estaba dispuesta a limitar las prejubilaciones, privatizar parcialmente activos estables y llevar a cabo medidas favorables a las empresas en nombre de la "consolidación fiscal", un eufemismo para recortes presupuestarios. <>, escribió Varoufakis. Unos días después de la publicación de esa entrada, Tsipras habló directamente con Angela Merkel, dejando a Varoufakis a un lado (11). Pero esto sólo puede significar que el primer ministro griego estaría dispuesto a hacer más concesiones que Varoufakis. Al haber dejado la amenaza de salirse del Euro fuera de la mesa de negociación desde el principio, Tsipras tiene muy poco margen de maniobra. NOTAS: http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_27/04/2015_549498 http://socialistworker.org/2015/02/25/what-caused-the-capitulation http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/09/25/6-3-million-greeks-threatened-by-poverty/ https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/04/syriza-eurozone-default-exit-stathis/ http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=d290bbae-ae96-42ba-b440-930387150164 http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2015/03/09/survey-710-greeks-support-honorable-compromise-with-european-partners/ http://socialistworker.org/2015/02/11/syriza-and-the-struggles-ahead http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/ap06/varoufakis-extends-washington-charm-offensive-after-talks-with-lagarde http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-26/the-rumble-in-riga-how-the-eu-lost-patience-with-varoufakis http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-26/the-rumble-in-riga-how-the-eu-lost-patience-with-varoufakis http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/04/24/a-new-deal-for-greece-a-project-syndicate-op-ed/
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